Fundhouse Investment Outlook Q2 2019 With the S&P 500 having breached 3000 index points for the first time recently, there is much fanfare and many headlines in the press trumping up this milestone. Intuitively it feels right, for much of the headline grabbing news relates either to the FAANGS or to the [...]
How Do We Overcome the 'SA Inc' Hangover? The fortunes of a broad number of counters on the JSE are closely tied to the health of the global economy. For these companies (the likes of Richemont, Naspers and British American Tobacco) They can appear immune to the issues we are having at [...]
Are Financial Advisors Really Worth It? Unless financial markets, -legislation, -tax and -planning are your profession or committed hobby, you may be better off consulting an expert. Having been involved in a wealth management business for the last 16 years, I contribute content to a few publications and platforms. In addition to [...]
The Importance of Being Wrong Sir Alex Ferguson is widely regarded as the best football manager of all time. He was the manager of Manchester United from 1986 to 2013 where he won 38 trophies including thirteen Premier League titles, five FA Cups, and two UEFA Champions League titles. One could reasonably [...]
How to Position Portfolio’s Now That the Results Are Out Cyril Ramaphosa is now free to revitalise SA and pursue a balanced agenda of economic growth and social justice for the next ten years. To summarise, our base-case scenario (at a 55% probability), expected the ANC to get 58%-plus of the vote. [...]
World GDP Growth Forecasts for the Next Two Years UNITED STATES Forecast 2019 GDP 2.2% | Inflation 1.7% Forecast 2020 GDP 1.7% | Inflation 2.1% The Growth momentum is on a downward trajectory but is expected to stay above trend for 2019. Slowing growth in Europe and China could constrain exports, but [...]
Is The Rand On The Up? The Rand is not likely to weaken from these levels unless the political scene turns very ugly (5% probability). If the outcome of the elections goes the economically desired route, the Rand could strengthen significantly. It would be wise then to view offshore investment values in [...]
Good News! Market Theory Prevails. The JSE recorded its best first-quarter performance since 2007 in the three months to end-March 2019. Boosted by a 15.2% gain by Naspers, the all-share index rose 7.1% in the first quarter (an annualized return of 28.4%!), erasing most of the losses incurred through 2018. As mentioned [...]
Artificial Intelligence... or Artificial Investing? The fund management world has become a more crowded place of late, with the addition of a new breed of fund manager. Driven by Artificial Intelligence (‘A.I.’), they boast legions of analysts in the millions if not billions, IQs which are off the charts and a 24hr-a-day [...]
Controlling the Controllables Disappointing investment performance over the past few years has resulted in many investors making changes to their portfolios; unfortunately emotionally driven, which can lead to greater losses. History provides us with some useful perspective. We see that periods of weak performance are followed by periods of strong performance (points [...]
